• EU to lose £500bn and UK to gain £640bn in no-deal Brexit, economist claims (read more here)
• A petition to leave the EU immediately was debated in parliament on January 22nd 2018 (read more here).
GOOD sense and good cheer from Australia’s high commissioner to the UK, Alexander Downer, who has spoken about the benefits of Britain leaving the customs union after Brexit. He said that Australia had itself experienced the “huge advantages of unilateral trade liberalisation”.
He also discussed how Australia wanted to “build back” its trade with the UK and warned Britain that: “If you remain in the customs union you would have no control over an independent trade policy. In fact, you would have no control over trade policy at all.”
The issue of the customs union is a defining one. Staying in guarantees tariff-free trade with EU countries but leaving it guarantees our freedom to reach new trade agreements with the rest of the world.
But the truth is that unless Brussels is determined to be eternally obstructive there is no reason why Britain and the EU can’t reach a mutually beneficial agreement on their trading terms. This would be advantageous not just to the two main parties but also to the global economy – another of High Commissioner Downer’s sensible and positive points.
For months now it has often seemed as though there is only Britain and the stonewalling EU in this endless discussion about how Brexit will proceed. It is refreshing to hear from a significant and knowledgeable figure from beyond this over-heated arena who can cast a new perspective on Brexit. His remarks also serve to remind us that for most of the world the EU is not the main event.
Quite rightly, Theresa May has overruled the Home Office, making it plain that EU migrants will not get the automatic right to remain permanently in Britain if they arrive here during the Brexit transition period between March 2019 and December 2020.
She was also right to ignore the Civil Service moans that the new system for processing the arrivals would not be ready in time.
As Jacob Rees-Mogg noted: “If this were true, it would be a sad admission of incompetence at the Home Office and it would be hard to believe that someone as efficient as Amber Rudd would accept such a sorry state of affairs.”
Or as the management speak gurus say, “Don’t bring me problems, bring me solutions.”
The purpose of the Bill is to transfer all EU laws and regulations into U.K. law, and over time, repeal those that no longer suit us. The Bill also repeals the European Community Act, 1972, and all subsequent Acts from the EU.
If we leave the EU with no deal, a hard Brexit will make the Withdrawal Bill redundant. Government can simply withdraw from the EU Treaties by notifying the Vienna Convention of Treaties. HMG can then transpose back into U.K. law those few EU directives that suit us, and jettison the rest. Economist Patrick Minford reported recently that the U.K. economy stands to gain £640 billion from a hard Brexit. So why wait? Let’s leave now!
– Sir William Jaffray
A “no deal” outcome from the Brexit negotiations would lead to a £500 billion loss for the European Union, according to a new analysis.
A study by Patrick Minford, a professor of economics at Cardiff University, states that while a failure to reach a deal would lead to “short term nuisance” for both sides, Brussels would face a “substantial economic loss”, compared to a net gain for the UK.
Prof Minford, who chairs the Eurosceptic Economists for Free Trade group, concludes: “It could not be more open and shut who least wants a breakdown”.
The analysis comes after David Davis, the Brexit Secretary, complained in a letter to the Prime Minister that Brussels was damaging British interests by talking up the threat to companies if the UK leaves the European Union without a deal.
Prof Minford said: “For the UK a breakdown would be a short term nuisance but a substantial economic gain; for the EU it is both a short term nuisance and a substantial economic loss.”
According to the analysis, the largest cost to the EU would be from paying the UK some £433 billion in tariff revenue. It would also lose around £28 billion which the UK would otherwise pay into the budget period to 2020, and a reported £10 billion contribution to longer term liabilities, as part of a financial settlement, Prof Minford concluded.
“Because its customs union with the UK would stop immediately, it would lose two years’ worth of the terms of trade gain its producers make on its balance of trade surplus with the UK- estimated at around £18 billion a year: so two years’ worth of that would be another £36 billion one-off loss,” he added.
By contrast, a breakdown in talks would lead to a “one-off gain” of £38 billion on savings in relation to the EU budget, in addition a £180 billion windfall as a result of bringing forward the “long-term gain” of “free trade, own-regulation and own-border-control” in the absence of the otherwise expected two-year implementation period for a deal.
The UK would also gain the total of £433 billion tariff revenue which Prof Minford calculated would be paid by the EU to the Treasury, he said.
He concluded: “So plus £641 billion for the UK versus minus £507 billion for the EU: it could not be more open and shut who least wants a breakdown. For the UK a breakdown would be a short term nuisance but a substantial economic gain; for the EU it is both a short term nuisance and a substantial economic loss.”
You can find this article on the Telegraph Website here.
A petition to leave the EU immediately has been debated in parliament.
Read more about this on the Daily Express website here
Parliament debated this petition on 22 January 2018.
This matter will not go away. The People expect their instructions to Parliament on leaving the EU unconditionally to be carried out unconditionally. Few can have any confidence in the PM and her remain-dominated Cabinet. For why pay £39 billion to the EU for a loss- making trade deal when surely they should be paying us? Why indeed!
– William Jaffray
The Government must walk away from the Article 50 negotiations and leave the EU immediately with no deal. The EU looks set to offer us a punishment deal out of spite. Why wait another 18 months when we could leave right away and take back control of our country, lawmaking powers and borders?
The EU looks set to offer us a punishment deal out of spite, insisting we pay tens of billions of pounds as part of a ‘settlement fee’ and continue to accept the jurisdiction of EU courts even after we’ve left. Meanwhile pro-EU MPs in Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP, along with unelected Lords, are attempting to block Brexit, the longer we remain a member the more opportunity they have to interfere. Why wait almost another 2 years when we could leave right away?